I haven't subscribed yet (shame) but had something worth sharing and I can't wait!
A month back on Consimworld's Avalanche Press Second World War at Sea someone asked what the odds
were of the Bismark (10-4-3 gunnery) sinking the Hood (10-0-2-3, 18 hull boxes) in a single salvo.
I just finished enumerating the probabilities and I think it shows a hole in the system. Allowing for spillover damage and also allowing for plunging fire, I get the following net chances for the event to happen.
If you need a "6" to hit: 1 in 1.5 billion
With a +1 bonus to hit: 1 in 83 million
Now I know it's a "1 in a million shot" but I think statistically that's an underestimate of the true probability as well
based on two "gut-checks".
Check 1: Assume a 1 square foot area of the Hood's deck has a flaw that if it will ignite the magazine.
Given the length of 860 feet and the beam of 106 feet, it's like a 1 in 46000 chance that a single hit would
destroy the ship, more than 100 times more likely than the best chance in the system.
Check 2: Consider the approximately 80 battleships among the major powers in WW II. Assume each takes
about 20 bomb/shell hits over it's career (ignoring torpedoes which are deadly in the game). 20 bomb/shell
hits was chosen since 17 bombs and 19 torpedoes went into sinking Musashi. This would give an approximate
number of 1600 bomb/shell hits on battleships in WW II. Of course, TWO off the top of my head (Hood and Arizona) essentially sank from single hits, so an estimate of the odds of a fatal hit using this method would be
1 in 800.
This led me to:
Proposed House Rule 1: Re-adding the GWAS explode to a critical hit result of "2". This automatically
destroys the target 1 in 1536 hits.
But reading "Last Stand of the Tin Can Sailors" again made me realize I really get bugged about how
easily battleships and cruisers make destroyers vaporize. This one is completely untested but I think it
kind of fits in.
Proposed House Rule 2: I think a primary or secondary hit should only affect a destroyer or small counter about 33% of the time (The "Hey, they're making swiss cheese!" rule). Most of the armor piercing hits from Japanese heavies didn't detonate! It took contact with a primary structural beam or heavy engineering equipment. This explained the comparatively long life for several of the destroyers involved in the action.
So what do you think?