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Recently a group of us assembled at the University of Ottawa to matrix-game the current conflict regarding the self-styled “Islamic State” in Iraq and Syria. For practical reasons and to limit the number of players/teams, the game largely focused on Iraq. The purpose, as with an earlier game held at the UK Defence Academy, was to explore the value and limits of matrix games as an analytical method.
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Our players and teams were well qualified: wargamers and operations research analysts from Defence Research and Development Canada, game designers, political scientists, and current or former Middle East intelligence analysts. How did it all work out?
Full blog post here: https://paxsims.wordpress.com/2015/02/07/revisiting-the-isis-crisis/
Comment
Several of the players in various games have been involved in intelligence support to the current fight, and the game has also been run with current military (although not necessarily those involved in counter-ISIS ops). Anecdotally I would say that the players who do best are those with area knowledge + strategic common sense, regardless of professional background.
Did you have any former or current war fighters involved? Sometimes that perspective, from first hand experience, can be enlightening to any process of conflict analysis.
Discussions, debates and civil arguments are good to have, something that this place has lacked for a while
Yes, Roger--I was thinking the same. It's nice to have a proper conversation.
If anything it has brought some life back into ConsimworldSocial, as it has lacked decent activity for a while
We did Roger :)
No probs Bill. I think at the start of these comments, I do not think I was getting the right answers out of Rex and I was not giving you or Rex the rights answers.
I think we got there in the end :)
Thanks Rex. Very interesting. Roger: Ok, at least I understand where your coming from.
Roger: Thanks for that, it clarifies where you are coming from.
We're dealing with a situation that: 1) has to be analyzed, and 2) where there are a great many variables, some of which cannot even be identified as variables in advance, and others for which their value cannot be determined with any precision. Dice are simply a quick way of representing all that uncertainty, and to avoid the umpire imposing his/her own views on the game narrative.
The game is not intended to ask question such as "will current Iraqi operations in Tikrit be successful?" Rather it explores questions like "how would ISIS respond to slow but steady IA gains on its southern flank?" or "how might such gains affect the perspective of current ISIS Sunni allies and fence-sitters?" (etc).
In this respect it's not all that different from the usual seminar-type brainstorming discussions that are very common in the intelligence community--it's just a different way of doing it.
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